Новости за 10.02.2016

Steven Stashwick, Diplomat
Baudelaire said the devil’s best trick was convincing us he did not exist. China’s best trick might be convincing us its claims over the South China Sea do exist. Official rhetoric about its “indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea islands” certainly sounds like a definitive Chinese position. And, of course, China occupies many islands in the area, its Coast Guard chases off foreign fishing vessels, and massive Chinese land reclamation projects provide new, persistent regional presence. Читать дальше...

S. Nashashibi, National
Mr Barzani has said Iraqi Kurdish statehood does not need anyone else’s blessing, but in reality the economic viability of this landlocked territory is largely dependent on the acquiescence of neighbours who say they will not countenance such a development. Turkey in particular is economically vital to Iraqi Kurds, whose key ally the United States is strongly in favour of a unitary Iraqi state. Iraqi Kurds cannot afford to alienate their neighbours and partners.

Aaron David Miller, WSJ
The Saudis have long been more concerned about removing Iranian ally Bashar Assad from power in Syria than they have been about directly fighting ISIS. Saudi leaders would be bitterly criticized at home if they deployed forces and were not seen as taking on the Assad regime, which has been viewed by Saudis and other Sunni Muslims as killing innocent Sunnis. Without a specific effort against Mr. Assad, who has been buoyed by Iranian and Russian support, Saudi Arabia would be accused of directly helping his ally Iran. Читать дальше...

Paul Sheehan, Sydney MH
The rate of loans at serious risk of default on Chinese bank's books is at least 3 per cent of assets. "That's a trillion dollars," says Bass. There is also capital flight. "There are 1.3 billion people in China. If 4 per cent of the population took out their US,000 limit, the .3 trillion in foreign reserves is gone... "The International Monetary Fund stipulates that China needs about US.7 trillion in foreign exchange just to operate their import-export business. They'll... Читать дальше...

Con Coughlin, Telegraph
Unchecked Russian military force is allowing it to redraw the Middle East in its favour – and pound Cameron's 70,000 moderates into submission

FP
Moscow says it's at war with the jihadist group -- but both sides aren't opposed to cutting economic deals amid the bloodshed.

Anna Sauerbrey, New York Times
Future generations might remember the past months as the final days of the age of convergence. On a continental level, “convergence” means the postwar political development toward an “ever closer union” among the European nation-states, in the words of the German historian Andreas Wirsching. Until recently, convergence seemed almost like a law of nature, an inevitability that could be slowed but never reversed.

Max Fisher, Vox
Eventually, America's long-slog presidential primaries will end, and the world's most powerful country will turn to the general election. And when it does, polling suggests that foreign policy and terrorism will be major issues for voters. This will naturally focus much of our national discourse, over the following several months, on Syria.

AP
Director Of National Intelligence James Clapper questioned Bangladesh's public insistence that the killings of foreigners were the work of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and are intended to discredit the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

D. McGroarty, RCWorld

Sajeeb Wazed, RealClearWorld
Bangladeshis and foreign visitors to our country have been the victims of some particularly vicious and high-profile crimes committed by a small cadre of violent extremists trying to destabilize Bangladesh's secular government and strike fear into the country's tolerant populace.

Milton Ezrati, National Interest
Concerns that the dollar's days are numbered lack merit.

Sebastien Hervieu, Worldcrunch
ILAKAKA — The rush first started in October. With nothing but muscle power, some 100 holes, 10 to 20 meters deep, were dug in the red, dry ground. No one really knows who found the first sapphire in the locality of Ankiliabo, a bush area in southern Madagascar. But they all came running to this new El Dorado, which is accessible with a simple zebu and cart or on foot.

Juan Cole, Informed Comment
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders won big in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Caution is in order, since that state is demographically not very much like the rest of the United States, and both candidates are Northeasterners with advantages there. US journalism dreams of a presidential election campaign for 3 years of every four, then when they finally get their wish and there is an electoral contest, they are in an amazing hurry to declare it over after the first primary.

Der Spiegel
With EU officials considering border closures along the Balkan refugee route, Greece is worried that it will become overwhelmed by migrants. The EU has chastised Greece for not securing its external border, but failings can be found in Brussels too.

George Monbiot, Guardian
So should those who seek a decent, protective politics vote to stay or vote to leave? If you wish to remain within the EU because you imagine it is a progressive force, I believe you are mistaken. That time, if it ever existed, has passed. The EU is like democracy, diplomacy and old age: there is only one thing to be said for it – it is not as bad as the alternative.

William Hague, Telegraph
In Britain, the blending of national identity and security, practical policy rather than being a slave to theory, and belief in economic freedom with sound money, has made the Conservatives by far the most successful of our parties. But on the issue of Europe, these components of Conservative thinking mean the party is naturally and inescapably torn.

David Bercuson, Globe and Mail
That’s not what Canadians want and the action taken by this government begs explanation from the Prime Minister himself. Why? Because his mysterious but persistent effort to withdraw Canada’s CF-18s from the fight, against the wishes of most Canadians, and against the wishes of Canada’s allies, possibly stems from his juvenile comment almost a year ago that his predecessor wanted to “whip out his CF-18s” to meet the crisis, and nothing more.

Leela Jacinto, Foreign Policy
A constitutional amendment — fancy that! At the Davos summit last month, when French Prime Minister Manuel Valls was asked how long he proposed extending the state of emergency, he replied, “as long as the threat is there.” Given that the jihadi threat is not going anywhere anytime soon, this effectively means … forever. At this rate, France is beginning to make the likes of George W. Bush and his infamous legal advisor Alberto Gonzales seem like a bunch of cheese-eating surrender monkeys.

Nolan Fahrenkopf, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
With the Iranian nuclear deal complete, attention has shifted from Iran’s nuclear program to its ballistic missile program. Despite the deal, Iran has actively maintained its long-range ballistic missile program, and its leaders clearly recognize the program’s strategic value. Yet for all the attention that the high-profile ballistic missile programs of Iran and North Korea have received from the nonproliferation community, an equally important aspect... Читать дальше...

Christopher Balding, Bloomberg View
The true impact of a falling yuan is likely to be both more nuanced and more limited in nature.

Thomas Friedman, New York Times
It will be a Middle East shaped by struggle over a one-state solution, a no-state solution, a non-state solution and a rogue-state solution.

D. Ignatius, Washington Post
For Kerry-watchers, it’s a familiar moment of brinkmanship: He’s making a last, desperate push for a diplomatic breakthrough with Russia and Iran at a meeting in Munich on Thursday, even as he warns that the United States has “other leverage” if diplomacy fails.