Новости за 23.02.2016

Metin Gurcan, Al-Monitor
The YPG now has to make a critical decision: Will it continue with US or Russian support? It is critical, because if the YPG opts for cooperation with Russia, it can expand the Afrin canton eastward and link it with two other Kurdish cantons, Kobani and Jazeera. This of course will create a Kurdish corridor between Turkey and the rest of predominantly Sunni Syria. This will be a nightmare scenario for the Sunni bloc led by Ankara and Saudi Arabia and supported by Qatar and Bahrain.

Anne Barnard, NY Times
Syrian Christians have not been of one mind about the conflict in their country, which began with mass protests in 2011. Some have expressed sympathy with the protesters, while Christian leaders at first sought to stay neutral. But many Christians, seeing Islamist extremists gaining power within the insurgency, have increasingly stuck with the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

Brendan O'Neill, The Spectator
In both Middle America and Middle England, among both rednecks and chavs, voters who have had more than they can stomach of being patronised, nudged, nagged and basically treated as diseased bodies to be corrected rather than lively minds to be engaged are now putting their hope into a different kind of politics. And the entitled Third Way brigade, schooled to rule, believing themselves possessed of a technocratic expertise that trumps the little people’s vulgar political convictions, are not happy. Читать дальше...

Konrad Yakabuski, Globe and Mail
French, whose elevated degree of difficulty is a source of pride for those who master it, but a source of frustration for those who seek to learn it, does not have history on its side. Calls to simplify what are considered archaic spellings and other ftiches of the language have always been predicated on the need to make French easier to learn in order to keep it alive.

Victor Davis Hanson, National Review
Go back and review speeches on the floor of Congress in support of the Bush administration’s using force. Some of the most muscular were the arguments of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Harry Reid, and Chuck Schumer. Pundits as diverse as Al Franken, Thomas Friedman, Nicholas Kristof, David Remnick, Andrew Sullivan, Matthew Yglesias, and Fareed Zakaria all wrote or spoke passionately about the need to remove the genocidal Saddam Hussein. All voiced... Читать дальше...

Christopher Hill, Project Syndicate
North Korea's recent nuclear test and rocket launch have finally convinced South Koreans that their bellicose neighbor will never abandon its nuclear ambitions. As the country cuts remaining ties with the North and adopts a new strategic stance, it will need the firm support of the international community.

David Roberts, Vox
China now represents almost half of global demand for steel, which means global met coal prices are effectively set by China. It also involved an enormous amount of power, which came largely from thermal coal. But that's over now. China is shifting gears, slowing overall growth (down to 7 percent in 2015), and transitioning economic activity from building and industry to services and quality of life.

Cooper & Lorber, The National Interest
While these options are far from perfect, they may provide policymakers better responses than threatening to use military force—or watching idly as China alters the status quo.

J. Norman, Gallup
Americans are less likely than ever to agree on which country is the greatest enemy of the U.S., but the four countries that crowd the top of the list this year are the same as in Gallup polls in 2014 and 2015: North Korea (16%), Russia (15%), Iran (14%) and China (12%).

Foster, T'graph
That’s right. It is a thought – sobering or uplifting, depending on your point of view – that by the time you sit down to eat your turkey this Christmas the leaders of the English-speaking world could be Boris Johnson and Donald Trump.

Michael O'Hanlon, Brookings
Once it becomes apparent in coming days that—as is almost surely inevitable—any ceasefire in Syria will be short-lived, we need to get beyond our twin delusions: that we have a serious Syria policy today, and that our current largely hands-off approach that seeks to contain the problem is viable.

Elliott Abrams, CFR
What about human rights? The Post tells us that “in recent weeks, administration officials have made it clear Obama would travel to Cuba only if its government made additional concessions in the areas of human rights, Internet access and market liberalization.” The President has said that “If I go on a visit, then part of the deal is that I get to talk to everybody. I’ve made very clear in my conversations directly with President Castro that we would continue to reach out to those who want to broaden the scope for... Читать дальше...

David Owen, Huffington Post
It has long been feared in NATO that the Syrian crisis would spill over into a wider war, but that moment is closer now than it has ever been before. Any serious analysis of the start of the First and Second World Wars reveals that a lack of clarity of intention is extremely dangerous.

Brian Bethune, Maclean's
For all the worry still expressed about “Little Emperors”—over-entitled singleton boys (One Child‘s cover is of a young boy perched in a throne-like chair)—the reality, now that they have become adults, seems to be as much about young men crushed by responsibilities. None of these is greater than finding the family member who in China has always done the heavy lifting in elder care: the daughter-in-law. Sex-selective abortions, rigorous birth control among those lucky enough to win the son-first-time-around lottery... Читать дальше...

Amos Harel, Foreign Policy
After nearly five months of continuous violence, Israel finally seems to have lost its nerve.

Alex Shepard, New Republic
Theeb ultimately serves not to retell any version of this story we’ve heard before, but to offer us an unusual, fresh look at a key moment of twentieth-century history.

George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures
However, we must also ask: does the agreement really matter? Not in the sense of the endless debate it will generate in Brussels and London, but rather in the sense of whether the EU is something Britain has to pay attention to any longer. There is an agreement. But member states have grown used to ignoring agreements. France has long ignored agreements on deficits. The Hungarians have ignored rules on a range of topics. Now everyone is ignoring rules on open borders and immigration. Читать дальше...

Marc Champion, Bloomberg View
Pre-EU history -- in the form of larger powers entering into zero-sum contests for dominance on the continent, and smaller ones entering into conflicts that risk drawing in others -- may well return, and to some degree already is. If Germany didn't contest for influence over central and Eastern Europe with Russia, for example, it would collude with Russia against the interests of smaller countries. The Balkans, without the prospect of EU membership, would be particularly vulnerable to instability.

Gordon Chang, World Affairs Journal
Whether by accident or design, the US now appears better positioned to counter, deter, and disarm North Korea.

Matt Purple, National Interest
Whereas Chavismo represents Venezuela’s past—Chvez’s revolution began fifteen years ago—it’s neoliberalism that’s been tried for decades here in America. Sanders offers a departure that seems fresh, even if it’s based on ideas that are themselves anachronistic. Thus are some Americans looking leftwards at democratic socialism, while many Venezuelans gaze rightwards at the same thing.

Marvin Weinbaum, RCWorld
While there are disagreements over aspects of U.S. policy in Afghanistan, there is a near consensus among experts that the country has entered into a critical period in which the complexion of the conflict with the Taliban could change rather quickly. Will the Taliban's momentum, so evident in 2015, continue, with the insurgents able to hold territory, including large urban centers? Will the Taliban's organizational disaffection accelerate the emergence of younger, more hardline elements... Читать дальше...

P.R. Gregory, Forbes
Alexander Solzhenitsyn wrote that prisoners arrested during Stalin’s Great Terror would ask, “Why me? Why have I been arrested?” The guards answer, “Just because.” Putin’s system of property rights functions in the same way. Putin’s “justice system” can take away anyone’s property for any reason at any time. Because of the completely arbitrary legal system, property rights cannot be protected by “correct behavior.”

PBS Newshour
Iranians will go to the polls next week to choose a new Parliament, as well as select the council that will in turn choose the country’s next Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Khamenei’s death. But how will the recent nuclear deal with the U.S. affect voting? William Brangham talks to NPR’s Steve Inskeep, who has just returned from a research trip in Iran, for more on the political scene there.

Charles Kennedy, Oil Price
It’s hard to come up with a real breakeven point for Saudi oil, for example, because it is responsible for funding the royal palace and indirectly, a large number of social programs that include everything from education to housing and energy subsidies. It’s hard to measure costs when this oil has to pay for all the luxuries of the Saudi royal family.

Tabatabai & Crowder-Han, BAS
Sanctions are an essential element of Washington’s Iran policy and are likely to remain a mainstay of the US foreign policy arsenal. But recent successes on the Iran front have led many to wrongly conclude that when it comes to sanctions, more is better. It’s this belief that underpins the recent effort by Congress to pass the Iran Terror Transparency Act. This bill would make it virtually impossible for some sanctions to be lifted as agreed under the JPCOA, by... Читать дальше...