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2016
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Новости за 17.02.2016

A New Idea for Israeli-Palestinian Peace

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Ephraim Sneh, Haaretz
The main opposition party’s new plan says Jerusalem first. The political courage behind this is praiseworthy. If the plan is carried out – and most Israelis agree with such a separation – we can move on to the solution that is indispensable – the two-state solution.

Troubled Waters Between Hong Kong and the Mainland

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Economist
IN HONG KONG, public trust in both the central government in Beijing and the territory’s own administration is stretched perilously thin. A seemingly routine event on February 8th—food-hygiene patrols targeted at illegal street vendors—triggered hours of rioting. Activists suspicious of the mainland’s influence in Hong Kong were among those who piled into the rampage (see article). Anxieties about the Communist Party’s sway in the territory have been whipped up recently by the disappearance... Читать дальше...

Alcohol in the Gulags

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Ruben Gzirian, War on the Rocks
While the atrocities of the Soviet regime are numerous, none targeted its own society in a more inhumane, ruthless manner than the Gulag prison camp system. Short for “Main Administration of Corrective Labor Camps and Labor Settlements (Glavnoye upravleniye ispravityelno-trudovykh lagerey i koloniy),” the Gulag system dotted the USSR and, between 1917 and1986, affected the lives of nearly 30 million people. Within these camps, especially between 1937 and Joseph Stalin’s death in 1953... Читать дальше...

What's Next for Abenomics?

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James McBride & Beina Xu, CFR
Japan, having fought deflation for more than two decades, remains mired in weak growth despite repeated attempts to revitalize its economy. Just weeks after taking office in December 2012, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had also led the country from 2006 to 2007, announced plans for a new suite of policies to jolt Japan's stagnating economy out of its deflationary malaise.

Fixing Schengen Won't Fix Crisis

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Bond, Korteweg & Mortera-Martinez, CER
The EU needs a new strategy to deal with the area beyond its borders to the south and south-east. The arc of countries from Turkey to Morocco should be part of Europe’s protection against the consequences of instability further afield, but is in fact contributing to the problems. The EU has to think afresh about how to reduce the flow of people before they reach the Mediterranean coast. If it only concentrates on making its external border controls more effective... Читать дальше...

In Munich, a Scary Peek at the Rise of Killer Bots

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David Ignatius, WaPo
Behind the main events at the annual discussion of foreign and defense policy here was a topic described in one late-night session as “The Future of Warfare: Race with the Machines.” The premise was that we are at the dawn of an era of conflict in which all wars will be, to some extent, cyberwars, and new weapons will combine radical advances in hardware, software and even biology.

The Great Dumbing Down of U.S. Foreign Policy

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S. Kinzer, Boston Globe
In this campaign, the foreign policy fun may be just beginning. John Kasich had it right when he marveled, “This is just crazy. This is just nuts. Jeez! Oh, man!”

Time to Prepare for the Saudi Collapse

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Chayes & de Waal, Defense One
The U.S. keeps getting caught flat-footed when purportedly solid countries came apart. At the very least, and immediately, rigorous planning exercises should be executed, in which different scenarios and different potential U.S. actions to reduce the codependence and mitigate the risks can be tested. Most likely, and most dangerous, outcomes should be identified, and an energetic red team should shoot holes in the automatic-pilot thinking that has guided Washington policy to date.



How Cows Can End the South Sudan War

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Justin Lynch, The Daily Beast
Grand bargains rarely end intractable, multilayered civil wars like the one in South Sudan. But local agreements can be the building blocks of an enduring peace.

What 'The Donald' Would Mean for Asia

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John Lee, Nikkei Asian Review
If Trump were to win office, some wise-heads would surely tell him that there is no alternative to U.S. power. With China's growing strength, there is no effective regional balance without a fully engaged American Seventh Fleet, naval forces with an area of responsibility covering the Pacific and Indian oceans. China's defense budget is already three times larger than that of Japan, its closest Asian rival in terms of military spending, while the budget of the People's... Читать дальше...

Spring Could Bring a Surge of Refugees to Europe

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Witte & Faiola, WaPo
After an unparalleled tide of asylum seekers washed onto European shores last summer and fall, the continent’s leaders vowed to use the relative calm of winter to bring order to a process marked by chaos. But with only weeks to go before more favorable spring currents are expected to trigger a fresh surge of arrivals, the continent is no better prepared. And in critical respects, the situation is even worse.

Healing the Scars of Bataclan

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Julia Heyer & Petra Truckendanner, Spiegel
Three months ago, a trio of Islamist terrorists stormed the Bataclan theater in Paris and slaughtered 90 people. Those who survived are still struggling to come to terms with what happened that night.

Russia Wields the Kurdish Weapon

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Walter Mead, American Interest
An incoherent American strategy is allowing Putin’s Russia to drive wedges into American alliances and disrupt what little strategy the U.S. has left in Syria. The latest example: Russia’s clever move to back the Syrian Kurds—key allies in what passes for America’s anti-ISIS strategy—against the Turks, America’s NATO allies and the keystone of any serious policy to restore order to Syria without the use of American troops.

Syria Cease-Fire Brings Turkey Closer to War

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R. Gutman, Foreign Policy
Russia has accelerated its brutal bombing campaign and is working with Turkey’s Kurdish enemies to seize as much land as it can — before peace breaks out.

India Must Choose Freedom over Intolerance

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P. Gopal, The Guardian
A famously contentious campus synonymous in India with critical thinking and vociferous debate, JNU has long been in the sights of the Hindu right, many of whom want nothing more than for it to be shut down. Its student union president, Kanhaiya Kumar, was arrested last week in the wake of a public meeting held on the anniversary of the controversial 2013 execution of Mohammed Afzal Guru, accused of the 2001 Indian parliament attack. After that meeting Kumar gave a wide-ranging... Читать дальше...

The Forgotten Truth About Why America Invaded Iraq

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Max Fisher, Vox
The US primarily invaded Iraq not because of lies or because of bad intelligence, though both featured. In fact, it invaded because of an ideology.

Friendly Dictators Can't Save the Arab World

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David Blair, Telegraph
If you topple a dictator you have chaos today; if you support him you have turmoil tomorrow and great human suffering in the meantime.

Is Next Steve Jobs Really Among Syria's Migrants?

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Ed West, Spectator
National test scores won’t tell us everything about the prospects of emigrants, who may come from particular social classes (Nigerians in Britain are typically better educated than Nigerians in Nigeria) but a dull, statistical look at the TIMSS stats from 2007 does not suggest Sweden and Germany have necessarily taken in the next Steve Jobs, given how low Syria ranks. It could be the case, but the statistics aren’t necessarily that convincing.

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Iran's Revolutionary Grandchildren

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Robin Wright, The New Yorker
When the revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini died abruptly, from heart failure after surgery, in 1989, he left behind fifteen grandchildren. The fate of his heirs reflects the depth of tensions within the Islamic Republic as it marks the thirty-seventh anniversary of the Imam’s triumphant return from exile—and prepares for twin elections, on February 26th. All the Khomeini kids (eight males and seven females) are committed reformers pushing for Iran to open up at home—politically... Читать дальше...

David Cameron Can't Win on Brexit

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John Rentoul, Politico EU
David Cameron has secured everything he promised in his EU negotiations, only the same old Conservative faces oppose his deal, and the opposition is in disarray. All the same, he is in deep trouble.

The GOP's New Foreign Policy Populism

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Jacob Heilbrunn, Natl Interest
Trump and Cruz seek to replace Rubio’s militant doctrine with another Republican tradition—an ideology of popular nationalism, coupled with an opposition to global elites and the dilution of national sovereignty—that dates at least to the League of Nations debate after World War I.

Why Poland Needs American Support

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Witold Waszczykowski, NY Times
Poland and the United States are more than strategic partners; we are close friends and allies with a shared history and values. After the 9/11 attacks, Poland responded to America’s call for solidarity, and its soldiers served in Iraq. In Afghanistan, Poland provided one of the largest military contingents to the NATO-led mission, and our military advisers continue to help train Afghan troops.

Giving Scotland What It Wants

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Alex Massie, Spectator
A superficial analysis might conclude that it is the Scottish government that cannot afford to walk away from a deal. True, if that happened, Unionists would scoff and titter at the Nats. Look at them! All these years campaigning for more powers for Scotland and, when those powers are granted, do they accept them? Do they hell. They up-skirts and scamper away. What a shower! Don’t they look ridiculous now? Well, maybe. This is the sort of thing that might seem persuasive in Whitehall. Читать дальше...

Trudeau's Baffling Omission in Holocaust Remembrance

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Marmur, Star
The Holocaust is never only a Jewish issue. Jews may have been its primary victims, but the mindset that leads to anti-Semitism has universal repercussions. Discrimination against all minorities today shows many similarities with what the Jews have been through.


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