China Update: Some Predictions Indicate Wuhan Coronavirus Could Turn Into Major Pandemic

Live from Hong Kong, China.

The ‘Year of the Rat’ started with little celebration as the entire country of China is overwhelmed with the outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus.

Experts are now warning of the possibility of an epidemic.  One doctor on Twitter discussed the danger of the Wuhan coronavirus:

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD – the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad – never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating… #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak pic.twitter.com/6mmxIHL9Ue

— Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 25, 2020

3/ … We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan….

— Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 25, 2020

5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are…

— Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 25, 2020

7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!! #wuhanvirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #ChinaCoronaVirus …

— Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 25, 2020

Others have rebutted Dr. Feigl-Ding’s assertions:

The basic reproduction number (R0) is the average number of secondary infections generated by one infected person in a totally susceptible population #2019nCoV

— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020

The claim that "we are now faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" and that the new coronavirus is 8x as infectious as SARS is completely untrue. Even if the R0 were 3.8 that would be nowhere near a record.

Here is some context w/ a range of R0s: pic.twitter.com/mESegkytXr

— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020

It's estimated, for example, that control measures reduced the R0 of SARS from ~2.9 to 0.4. (This might be the source of the erroneously cited "modest" 0.49 "viral attack rate" for SARS in the viral thread)

Reference: https://t.co/YoZZRZhTR0

— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020

Reports coming out of Wuhan are scary.  According to the South  China Morning Post:

– One woman said her husband had been feverish and coughing blood but was turned away by several hospitals that said they had no room.
– Desperate scenes come as death toll rises to 41 and more than 1,000 cases of infection confirmed nationwide.

Here is a tweet from a Wuhan hospital:

I’m not on the #WuhanCoronavirus story as a journalist this time. I’m a very concerned 武汉人 posting videos I see in chat groups. Here is a another one – the man in the video speaks with a Wuhan accent: “I’m at the Hankou Hospital… (1/2) pic.twitter.com/vRw4N4Fd67

— Xinyan Yu (@xinyanyu) January 23, 2020

The situation is not well in Wuhan.  The entire country and world are watching.

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