Analysis of FOX News Poll: When Adjusted for Party Affiliation and Reality – Trump is Destroying Hiden’ Biden
FOX News came out with its poll results again this Sunday. This poll consistently is skewed towards the Democrats. Today we explain why this is and offer estimates when eliminating this polling bias. (Hint – Trump is way ahead!)
FOX News came out this morning with the results of its poll where they again show former Obama Vice President Biden ahead of President Trump in the polls – 51%-46%. This is in spite of no excitement for candidate Biden who is taking questions using a teleprompter and can’t seem to get out of his basement.
Anyone can see that Joe Biden is but a shell of a person that he once was. Biden now is sadly suffering from senility and possible Alzheimer’s disease. He is holding tiny events with no enthusiasm at all. So the results of the FOX poll are puzzling at best and have been for some time.
The good news for Trump supporters coming from the apparent biased poll is that over 50% of those polled believe President Trump will win the election.
Overall though the poll results clearly are tainted. So we decided to look into the data, or at least what we could find.
One item that jumps out immediately is the sample sizes used in the poll. According to the poll data the FOX poll used 49% Democrats and 46% Republicans and 5% Independent in their poll:
The other puzzling piece of information from the poll is that when the poll reports the results on which candidate will win the election, Independents are apparently not included in their polling:
But according to Rasmussen, the appropriate ratio of voters by party is as follows:
Our new 2500 Likely Voters Trump vs Biden National Match-Up poll will post at noon.
A reminder for our Myth-Makers – D stands for Democrat. https://t.co/GZrcmft9fR
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) September 9, 2020
It appears that FOX eliminates the significant Independent vote in its polling. Why would FOX hide this significant number in its results?
Another puzzling result from the FOX News poll is their results showing only 5% of the Black vote supporting President Trump. Rasmussen with a much better track record shows President Trump currently bringing in 30% of the Black vote and 44% of the other non-white vote. If these ratios were the same, President Trump would be ahead in the FOX News poll:
Biden vs Trump
Sept 2-3 & 6-8, 2020
2500 National Likely Voters
Weighted D37, R33, IND30
Crosstab Sections –@JoeBiden has a 4pt lead w/ Women, 7pt lead w/ 65+@realDonaldTrump has a 1pt lead w/ Men, 30% of the Black Vote & 44% of the Other Non-White Vote https://t.co/UJQlZj78JU pic.twitter.com/ugJA6MqI9F
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) September 9, 2020
As in 2016, once you dig into the results of the polls being released today, you see a number of biases. This is why it is important to look at the actual data.
As of Thursday, for the four days starting on Labor Day, President Trump had more than 20,000 event goers at his events compared to Biden’s 41.
Today Trump has more than 85 million Twitter followers to Biden’s 9 million.
Last night President Trump had 115,000 people watching his rally in Nevada on just one channel (Right Side Broadcasting Network) on YouTube. Biden had none all day because he had no events all day.
The polls are one thing but reality is another.
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